Predicting Groundwater Level Using Climate Change Scenarios in the Southern Part of Mali

Groundwater is mainly demanded in all the activities for population of southern part especially Koda catchment, studied area. These resources are affected by various factors climate change. Therefore, knowing impact projected change on groundwater recharge an important issue water management, those responsible catchment. In this work, study area Mali, West Africa investigated. The Hydrogeological modeling was performed using Gardenia model, and monthly precipitation temperature data were used as Baseline. considered past 30-year period (1987-2016) projections next 30 years (2021-2050). Projected air temperatures, extracted from Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA 4) statistically downscaled GCM-IHEC-EC-EARTH GCM-MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR under Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5 8.5 corrected with Multiscale Quantile Mapping bias correction method, input to gardenia model. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) values estimated Blaney Criddle method levels measured three piezometers calibrate outputs display reduction level catchment two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) during periods rainy season July October. From results GCM IHEC-EC-EARTH, decline GWL reaches 1.09 m it up 1.26 while MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR presentes (GWL) winter about 0.62 1.93 8:5. Both RCMs project a trend over time. It noticeable that greater RCP8.5 piezometers. also show average (90 mm) future (2021-2050) lower (180 than current drought (1987-2016), which could lead severe events. impacts would have significant 2029-2039; situation negative socioeconomic agriculture, depends resources. will help take some adaptation measures change, famers possibility know where they more infiltration therefore, seek crops need less or water. presents numerous potential groundwater, be tool management determine favorable sites implant new boreholes.